Bear River an underdog (or not) in Section V playoffs

Bear River enters tonight’s Section V matchup at Capital Christian as a decided underdog even though both schools have 7-3 records, according to gushin’ Joe Davidson of The Sacramento Bee.

Davidson, The Bee’s long-time cheerleader for prep sports,  considers Capital Christian the favorite to win the division while the Bruins are basically cannon fodder. Davidson predicts better times for Placer, his pick to win Division IV, and he considers Colfax a contender for the Division V title.

That was Wednesday. In today’s edition, Davidson rates Bear River 1 of 5 possible upset winners in tonight’s games. That’s what you call covering all of the possibilities.

Regardless of the outcome of the playoffs, Bear River succeeded in its season goal of flipping its record from 3-7 to 7-3. It wasn’t easy as the team struggled down the stretch and had to go to overtime to beat a 5-5 Center team in the season finale, a victory that put them in the playoffs.

The Rankings:  Three of the four teams in the Foothills 4 were within 4 points of each other at the end of the regular season. Colfax actually had the best point differential (points scored minus points surrendered) but Placer had a stronger schedule and finished first. Colfax lost ground when I adjusted for strength of schedule because it played 2 schools–Bella Vista and Wheatland–that managed to finish a combined 0-20.

The final rankings with season records:

  1. Placer (9-1)                    118.8
  2. Colfax (7-3)                    116.0
  3. Bear River (7-3)            114.7
  4. Nevada Union (2-8)      86.1

The Picks: I went 2-0 last week (Bear River-Center was considered a toss-up) to bring the season record to 12-7, a respectable 63 percent. I’ve done better in past years.

Wait ’til next year: Nevada Union is leaving the Sierra Foothills League after 8 years of futility (5-39 in league play) and dropping down a couple of notches to play in the Foothill Valley League with Placer, Lincoln, Oakmont, Ponderosa, and Rio Linda.

The Miners played 2 of those schools this year, beating Placer (the Hillmen’s only loss) and losing to Lincoln. So how would NU have done if the six schools were in the same league this year?

I decided to run the power numbers to find out, and the following is how they rated this year. This is not a projection of what will happen next year and is unfair to NU because the Miners played in a much tougher league than the other schools. With those caveats in mind, here are the rankings with each school’s 2017 record:

  1. Placer (9-1)                  118.8
  2. Lincoln (8-2)               110.3
  3. Rio Linda (6-4)           103.0
  4. Oakmont (5-5)              98.5
  5. Ponderosa  (4-6)          96.6
  6. Nevada Union (2-8)    86.1
This entry was posted in Bear River football, Colfax football, Nevada Union football, Placer football, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

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