A lot of football fans are afraid Patriots will win the Super Bowl

A lot of football fans are rooting for Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl Sunday because they hate New England, but they’re also afraid the Patriots will figure out a way to win the game.

And the winner is?

So I’m expecting a lot of half-hearted support for the Eagles (at least outside Pennsylvania), who were made 6-point underdogs before their game with Minnesota was over and have been bet down to 4.5 points.

The betting interest in the Eagles stems from the perception the teams are much closer than the point spread indicates, and I’m inclined to agree with that view.

Using a basic power rating system that has proved reliable over the years, I rate Philadelphia less than 1 point better than the Patriots. The teams had 6 common opponents this year, and the Eagles when 5-1 against them vs. the Patriots 4-2 record. (Kansas City is the only team that beat both of them.)

The teams are almost even in turnover ratio, the single best predictor of who’s going to win a game. From a strictly betting perspective, Philadelphia beat the point spread by an average of 7.8 points (the bookies underrated them all year) while the Patriots covered the number by 1.3 points. That suggests taking the Eagles and the points is a better play than New England.

But New England has two advantages Philadelphia lacks–quarterback Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the best coach in pro football today and maybe the best ever. As the old saying goes, Belichick can take his and beat yours, and take yours and beat his.

The Patriots are far from perfect; their biggest defect is a weak running game, and I’m sure the Eagles are going to try to stop the run and force Brady to beat them through the air. Philly has the best pass rushing defense in the league, and will depend on its front four to pressure Brady enough to disrupt his timing.

Belichick know this, and you can bet he will come up with a counter. He also has the best big-money quarterback in the game. Brady has already won a record 5 Super Bowls and you need to take a deep breath to bet against him in this one. (Besides, he was born and raised in my hometown, San Mateo.)

Close games always come down to the QB, and I would like Philly if Carson Wentz was starting because he can largely offset the Brady advantage. Unfortunately, he was injured in game 15 and his backup, Nick Foles, will have to get the job done. There’s a reason why he was second string.

Who’s going to win the game? I don’t know, but I’m going to enjoy the game from a unique position. A friend of mine who bets a lot more on football than I could ever afford has invited me to join him at a high rollers party at the Peppermill hotel-casino in Reno.

It will be interesting to see how guys who “go to their pocket real good” react as the game unfolds. I’ll be watching closely as I enjoy the food and beverages.

This entry was posted in National Football League, Sports, Sports betting, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

11 Responses to A lot of football fans are afraid Patriots will win the Super Bowl

  1. fish says:

    “Editor’s note: We were rooting for the Eagles. A longtime friend whom I worked with at the Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel in the ’80s is now the Senior Vice President of marketing and media for the Eagles. We’ve been in touch about the Eagles’ success. And TheStreet.com co-founder Jim Cramer, whose stock market books and TV programs I enjoy, is a longtime Eagles fan. Congratulations!”

    ……”jeffy always wanted to be the corpse at every funeral, the bride at every wedding and the baby at every christening.”

    Loosely paraphrased of course

  2. jeffpelline says:

    Do I need a restraining order from the sickos who comment on this blog? You know how to attract all the losers. This one isn’t even “local.”

  3. Fish, I guess Jeffy didn’t like your comment.

    • fish says:

      George….are you aware that the internet is changing the way we communicate? For instance I can comment on the inanities found on a public blog originating in Nevada City from the Sacramento area.

  4. Todd Juvinall says:

    Isn’t Pelline the one that constantly tells us we should be incarcerated in a loony bin? The man is huge but has thin skin.

  5. jeffpelline says:

    Why would you want to comment on a blog originating in Nevada City from the Sacramento area? Dr. Phil could help us, I suspect.

    • fish says:

      Again with your Dr. Phil fetish….

      Anyway jeffy if your Big Ol Punkin Head hadn’t shown up in my local newspaper 5 years ago I never would have known about your mad coffee retrieval skills and general odiousness as a human being! So you really have nobody to blame but yourself.

      Stumbling on this little coterie of Nevada City blogs was like stumbling on a great fishing hole that nobody else knows about.

  6. fish says:

    ….local man tries to assert his superiority…..fails.

    “Journalist” Boardman confirms he was a proud p.r. flack: “Here’s a tip from somebody who staged well over 100 press conferences over a 30-year period, several of them in San Francisco.”

    Don’t blame George jeffy…..the Coffee Retrieval and Distribution Technician position had been filled by then.

    • Apparently “several” in San Francisco isn’t good enough for Jeffy. I also organized “several” press conferences in New York, Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. I even did two in London.

      If you wanted coverage in the San Francisco dailies when I was doing high tech PR, your first stop was the Examiner, which was responsible for the Sunday business section of the combined Chron-Ex. But if you wanted to publicize your Oriental rug business, the Chronicle was definitely the place to go.

    • fish says:

      I just find it amusing that a guy whose entire journalism career seemed to consist of little more than swooning over the “celebrities” (Jobs, Gates I think, etc) he interviewed now runs a PR flack glossy consisting of similar content to that he mocks….. celebrity purveyors of Wine, Food and Weed!

      Self awareness certainly isn’t his strong suit.

    • I’m upfront about who I am. Pelline wants people to think he’s still a journalist. Ask his old buddies at the Chronicle what they think of his “magazine.”

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